Daily Insights

Global rate rally.Long-term rates have rallied around the world recently, likely in response to aBrexitdelay, progress in trade talks, and improving China data.The 10-yearTreasuryyieldposted its largest two-week increase since the beginning of October, while the 10-yearGerman bundyield notched its best two-week rally in 14 months. Greater international demand has put significant pressure on Treasury yields this year, so any improvement we see in rates overseas should help lift U.S. yields.

Inflation angst. Another weight on long-term U.S. yields has been speculation of slowing inflation. Deteriorating global conditions earlier this year shifted the economic landscape and fueled concerns that domestic inflationary pressures could be too low. Bond investors priced weakening inflation into rates, which drove the 10-year yield to a 15-month low and briefly inverted theyield curve. Now, yields are rebounding, but inflation data are still sending mixed signals. On theLPL Research blog,we’ll look into the current state of inflation, and what that could mean for yields.

NEW Market Signals podcast. Inthis week’s podcast,Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch and Senior Strategist Ryan Detrick discuss the current low inflation, what is and isn’t priced into the market, and how it all could play out the rest of 2019. Subscribe to the free Market Signals podcast series oniTunes,Google Play,Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts!

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Tuesday

• Industrial Production (MoM, Mar)
• Japan Trade Balance (Mar)
• Japan Exports (Mar)
• Japan Imports (Mar)
• China Industrial Production (Mar)
• ChinaGDPReport (Q1)

Wednesday

• Trade Balance (Feb)
• Federal ReserveBeige Book(Apr)
• Japan Industrial Production (Feb)
• Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)
• EurozoneCPIReport (Mar)

Thursday

• Retail Sales (MoM Mar)
• InitialJobless Claims(Apr 13)
• Markit US ManufacturingPMI(Preliminary Apr)
• Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary Apr)
• Markit US Composite PMI (Preliminary Apr)
• Leading Index(MoM Mar)
• GermanyPPIReport (Mar)
• JapanCPIReport (Mar)

Friday

• Housing Starts(MoM Mar)
• Building Permits (MoM Mar)

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Index data obtained via FactSet

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