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Market Update: Wed, Mar 27, 2019

Market Update: Wed, Mar 27, 2019

| March 27, 2019
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Market Update: Wed, Mar 27, 2019 | LPL Financial Research


Daily Insights

Trade deficit shrinks as U.S.-China talks set to resume. Monthly U.S. figures showed the trade deficit narrowed in January to $51.1B, while December data was revised up by $0.1B to -$59.8B. Imports of both goods and services declined, while overall exports increased. The gap between the U.S. and China narrowed month over month, but the longer term trend remains negative. The data come as top U.S. trade officials gear up for another trip to Beijing on Thursday, with President Trump telling Republican lawmakers recently that he will not accept anything less than “an excellent deal.” We don’t expect market-moving progress this week, though we remain optimistic on a resolution coming in the relatively near future.

China firms see profits drop, government shifting stimulus focus. Data show profits for Chinese industrial firms fell 14% year over year in the first two months of 2019, the largest drop since 2011. The data follow an earlier release showing income growth for state-owned enterprises decelerated to +10% in the same period as demand slows at home and abroad. Still, China’s Beige Book showed “an unmistakable recovery” in the first quarter after a weak end to 2018, helped by a resumption in credit growth. Looking ahead, the Peoples Bank of China is expected to tap the brakes on monetary policy support over the balance of the year as government officials shift their focus in favor of fiscal stimulus measures.

Some good news. As the global slowdown continues and various yield curves invert, many are worried about a recession starting soon. And some of the coincident indicators like consumer spending, capital expenditures, and industrial production have been quite weak – adding to these concerns. On the flipside, is leading economic indicators like copper, money supply, and services have all decidedly improved since the December lows. Today on the LPL Research blog we will take a look at one of our favorite leading indicators that indeed suggests a recession might not be as imminent as some suggest.


Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar


  • Trade Balance (Jan)


  • GDP Report (Third Revision, QoQ Q4 2018)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (March 23)
  • Pending Home Sales (MoM, Feb)
  • Eurozone Economic Confidence Index (Mar)
  • Germany CPI Report (Mar)
  • Japan Jobless Rate (Feb)
  • Japan Tokyo CPI Report (Mar)
  • Japan Industrial Production (Preliminary Feb)
  • Japan Retail Sales (Preliminary Feb)


  • Core PCE (MoM Jan)
  • New Home Sales (MoM Feb)
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Index (Mar)
  • Germany Unemployment Claims Rate (Mar)
  • UK GDP Report (Q4 2018)
  • Eurozone CPI Report (Mar)
  • Canada GDP Report (Jan)



The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

All company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured.  These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency.  The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.

Index data obtained via FactSet


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