Daily Insights

ECB changes guidance, acknowledges weaker economy. In what we would call a bit of a surprise, the European Central Bank (ECB) this morning said it now expects to maintain interest rates at current levels at least through the end 2019 after lowering its GDP growth expectations to 1.1% from 1.7%, and its inflation forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%. In another accommodative move, though widely expected, the ECB announced plans to start a new bank loan program in September to help stimulate economic growth. European equities pared losses on the news while the euro and European bond yields edged lower.

OECD lowered global growth forecasts. Citing slower growth in China and Europe, policy uncertainty (trade, Brexit), and financial market risks, yesterday the OECD lowered its global economic growth forecasts for 2019. Global growth expectations were cut from 3.5% to 3.3%, with Europe driving most of the decline-the group cut its euro area growth forecast sharply, from 1.8% to 1.0%. Reductions to growth in the U.S. were marginal. Recent signs of stabilization in Europe, prospects for eventual trade and Brexit clarity, and removal of temporary drags from late 2018, all suggest the outlook for European economies may soon begin to improve.

10 years. The bull market will turn 10 years old on March 9, topping the previous record of 9.5 years during the 1990s to make it the longest bull market since World War II. Remember though, it is important to note that this rally is still well beneath the percentage gain from the 1990s bull market. Today on the LPL Research blog we will take a closer look at this bull market and show why it might be old, but there’s a good chance it can get to 11 next year.

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Thursday

• Initial Jobless Claims (Mar. 2)
• Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ, Q4 2018)
• Japan Leading Index (Preliminary, Jan)
• Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary, Jan)
• Eurozone Employment (Q4 2018)
• Eurozone GDP Report (Q4 2018)
• European Central Bank Rate Decision (March)
• Japan GDP Report (Q4 2018)

Friday

• Nonfarm Payrolls Report (MoM, Feb)
• Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• China CPI Report (Feb)
• China PPI Report (Feb)

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Index data obtained via FactSet

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