Signs Of A Washout?
The S&P 500 Index’s historic slide continued yesterday, culminating in nearly a 10% loss for the day, and leaving the benchmark index officially in bear market territory, just 16 trading days after setting a record high on February 19. In addition, the S&P 500 has now moved more than 4% each day this week, leaving investors and professionals alike wondering when this volatility could end. While nobody knows for sure, one thing we always look for at market bottoms are signs of extremes, both from a sentiment and price perspective.
From an anecdotal sentiment perspective, certainly fears of COVID-19 have reached the masses, with travel plans canceled and announcements of major events called off coming nearly every hour. However, investor survey data shows a similar story with the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey showing the highest percentage of bears since April 2013. In addition, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index, which represents the average exposure to US equity markets by the surveyed investment managers, reached its lowest level since September 2015. Following each of those instances, the S&P 500 rallied more than 13% over the next year.
Another way of gauging sentiment can be from the internals of the market. While the S&P 500 is now well below its 200-day moving average, that doesn’t mean each stock in the index has moved below its respective 200-day moving average. In fact, regardless of the broad market’s trend, when less than 20% of the individual components of the index are trading below their 200-day moving averages, it is considered an extreme. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Thursday’s sell-off left less 6% of the S&P 500 there, a number last seen in March 2009. “These are truly frightening times,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “However, it is important to remember that the signs of panic we are seeing are typically found at or near major market lows.”
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
If your representative is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union.
These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking 1-965250